Wednesday, June 2, 2010
Belmont Day!
Weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!! Tomorrow I fly to NYC and the undercard looks amazing for what is sure to be a fun, and hopefully ticket cashing, weekend. Going to review the races on the plane but think Ice Box @ 3-1 is juicy in a wide open Belmont given his time off and impressive last 2 races. Will be playing against Gio Ponti off the long Dubai trip and betting big on the Acron. Also extremely pleased to see Trappe Shot show up in the 4th... he should start the day with a 3+ legnth romp.
Thursday, May 6, 2010
Derby Day PK6 Carryover - $1,000,000
Taking a light stab at this given it's relative impossiblity.
R5: 3
R6: 2
R7: 3,6
R8: 3,8
R9: 5,7
R10: 1,10
1x1x2x2x2x2 = $32
THIS IS GOING TO STING FOR A WHILE. LOST THE 1ST LEG TO MY SECOND CHOICE WHEN MY PICK UNSEATED HIS RIDER... RAN THE REMAINING 5 TO HIT THE 5 OF 6 CONSO. GOING TO BE KICKING MYSELF FOR SKIMPING AND SAVING THAT EXTRA $32 BY LEAVING OUT THE 5 IN THE FIRST LEG... 6 OF 6 PAID $$21,XXX?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!??!?!?! OUCH.
R5: 3
R6: 2
R7: 3,6
R8: 3,8
R9: 5,7
R10: 1,10
1x1x2x2x2x2 = $32
THIS IS GOING TO STING FOR A WHILE. LOST THE 1ST LEG TO MY SECOND CHOICE WHEN MY PICK UNSEATED HIS RIDER... RAN THE REMAINING 5 TO HIT THE 5 OF 6 CONSO. GOING TO BE KICKING MYSELF FOR SKIMPING AND SAVING THAT EXTRA $32 BY LEAVING OUT THE 5 IN THE FIRST LEG... 6 OF 6 PAID $$21,XXX?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!?!??!?!?! OUCH.
Saturday, May 1, 2010
A RAINY Derby Day
The heaviest rain on "Derby Day" was a 2.31" deluge that accumulated both in the morning and evening of May 11, 1918. Therefore, it's possible Saturday could be the wettest race day on record! Perhaps the odds-on favorite isn't really "Lookin At Lucky" but rather "Heavy Rain". - www.weather.com
Should be a total crap shoot today and will be fishing for prices with yesterday's profits...
R5:
Most Likely: #4 Hymn book
Next Best: #12 Anarko
R6:
Most Likely: #2 Hot Dixie Chick
Best Value: #3 Bell's Shoes
Next Best: #1 Buckleupbuttercup - WON
R7:
Most Likely: #5 Tizaqueena
Best Value: #7 Diamondrella
Next Best: #1 Miss Keller
R8:
Most Likely: #2 Warbling
Best Value: #5 Double Expresso, #6 Pretty Prolific, #7 Cassidy's Pride
Next Best: #3 Informed Decision
R9:
Most Likely: #7 Warriors Reward - 2nd
Best Value: #13 Accredit 20-1 !! - Off his form and long layoff but perfect 5 for 5 over sloppy track @ 20-1 - 5th
Next Best: #12 Musket Man - 2rd
Multi use: 2,3
R10: Playing Against the favorites...
Most Likely: #6 Battle of Hastings 4th
Best Value: #7 Blues Street 5th
Next Best: #5 Al Kahli 6th
R11:
Most Likely: #1 Lucky (will play if > 6-1), #2 Ice Box, #4 Super Saver, #11 Devil May Care, #20 Sidney's Candy if 10-1+.
Best Value: #10 Paddy O Prado, #7 American Lion
Also Include on Multi: #3,6,13,14,15,16,17
PK4 Play:
R8: 2,3 (5,6,7)
R9: 7,12,13 (2,3)
R10: ALL
R11: 1,2,4,7,10,11,20
2x3x3x7 *0.50 = $63
Should be a total crap shoot today and will be fishing for prices with yesterday's profits...
R5:
Most Likely: #4 Hymn book
Next Best: #12 Anarko
R6:
Most Likely: #2 Hot Dixie Chick
Best Value: #3 Bell's Shoes
Next Best: #1 Buckleupbuttercup - WON
R7:
Most Likely: #5 Tizaqueena
Best Value: #7 Diamondrella
Next Best: #1 Miss Keller
R8:
Most Likely: #2 Warbling
Best Value: #5 Double Expresso, #6 Pretty Prolific, #7 Cassidy's Pride
Next Best: #3 Informed Decision
R9:
Most Likely: #7 Warriors Reward - 2nd
Best Value: #13 Accredit 20-1 !! - Off his form and long layoff but perfect 5 for 5 over sloppy track @ 20-1 - 5th
Next Best: #12 Musket Man - 2rd
Multi use: 2,3
R10: Playing Against the favorites...
Most Likely: #6 Battle of Hastings 4th
Best Value: #7 Blues Street 5th
Next Best: #5 Al Kahli 6th
R11:
Most Likely: #1 Lucky (will play if > 6-1), #2 Ice Box, #4 Super Saver, #11 Devil May Care, #20 Sidney's Candy if 10-1+.
Best Value: #10 Paddy O Prado, #7 American Lion
Also Include on Multi: #3,6,13,14,15,16,17
PK4 Play:
R8: 2,3 (5,6,7)
R9: 7,12,13 (2,3)
R10: ALL
R11: 1,2,4,7,10,11,20
2x3x3x7 *0.50 = $63
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Oaks Day
R6:
Most Likely: #4 Rachel
Next Best: #3 Zardana
R7:
Most Likely: #7 Nina Fever
Best Value: #2 Lou Brissa - WON
Next Best: #6 Final Mesa
R8:
Most Likely: #6 Silver Timber - WON
Best Value: #7 Starfish Bay
Next Best: #3 Chamberlain bridge - 2nd
R9:
Most Likely: # Arson Squad - WON - PK3 paid $242
Best Value: # Flying Private
Next Best: # Cool Coal Man
R10:
Most Likely: #4 Lost Aplitude
Best Value: #11 Working for hops
Next Best: # 5 Strike the Tiger, #6 Double Partner - WON - PK3 Paid $368
R11
Most Likely: #5 Blind Luck - WON - PK3 paid$271
Best Value: #11 Evening Jewel - 2nd, #2 Jody Slew
Next Best: # 8 Tidal Pool - 3rd
Tri paid $390!?!
Oaks/Derby Double
$8 5 w/ 10,11
$4 5 w/ 2,6,7,10,11
$2 8,11 w/ 4,10,11
Oaks/Woodford/Derby PK3
$1 5 w/ 5,6,7 w/ 1,10,11
Most Likely: #4 Rachel
Next Best: #3 Zardana
R7:
Most Likely: #7 Nina Fever
Best Value: #2 Lou Brissa - WON
Next Best: #6 Final Mesa
R8:
Most Likely: #6 Silver Timber - WON
Best Value: #7 Starfish Bay
Next Best: #3 Chamberlain bridge - 2nd
R9:
Most Likely: # Arson Squad - WON - PK3 paid $242
Best Value: # Flying Private
Next Best: # Cool Coal Man
R10:
Most Likely: #4 Lost Aplitude
Best Value: #11 Working for hops
Next Best: # 5 Strike the Tiger, #6 Double Partner - WON - PK3 Paid $368
R11
Most Likely: #5 Blind Luck - WON - PK3 paid$271
Best Value: #11 Evening Jewel - 2nd, #2 Jody Slew
Next Best: # 8 Tidal Pool - 3rd
Tri paid $390!?!
Oaks/Derby Double
$8 5 w/ 10,11
$4 5 w/ 2,6,7,10,11
$2 8,11 w/ 4,10,11
Oaks/Woodford/Derby PK3
$1 5 w/ 5,6,7 w/ 1,10,11
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Oaks / Derby Day
Churchill should be wet and sloppy which reminds me of Proud Spell romping home at a generous 3-1 in the '08 Oaks. The most lucrative pool of the weekend was exploited that year when Proud Spell @ 3-1 over the heavy fav 2-1 Big Brown paid 2x overlay of 17-1. Hoping to find some longer prices this weekend in the Oaks/Derby Double and the Oaks/Woodford/Derby PK3.
Early thoughts on horses I like this weekend...
Oaks: Tidal Pool / Blink Luck... hoping Blind Luck is 2-1+ or TP is 5-1+ Live Long Shot = Jody Slew @ 30-1?!
Derby: Ice Box $$$, Devil May Care, Lookin@Lucky, and Sidney's Candy. One's i'm still curious about... Super Saver, Awesome Act, Paddy O Prado
And the race for last regardless of posts includes: Dublin, Backtalk, Dean's Kitten, Homeboykris
Early thoughts on horses I like this weekend...
Oaks: Tidal Pool / Blink Luck... hoping Blind Luck is 2-1+ or TP is 5-1+ Live Long Shot = Jody Slew @ 30-1?!
Derby: Ice Box $$$, Devil May Care, Lookin@Lucky, and Sidney's Candy. One's i'm still curious about... Super Saver, Awesome Act, Paddy O Prado
And the race for last regardless of posts includes: Dublin, Backtalk, Dean's Kitten, Homeboykris
Saturday, April 3, 2010
Wood & SA Derby Day
A major prep weekend for the derby.
AQU: Race 7: Going to try to get past entry since they will be a short price. Also find it odd Contessa sends two speed balls into this including the big number but confused 85ina50. I can see them flying up front and leaving the perfect stalking trip for Raynick's Jet, the pick. Also intrigued by Cali shipper "Hurricane Ike."
Most Likely: #2 Raynick's Jet (3-1 ML) -4th
Best Value: #4 Hurricane Ike (7-2) - 2nd
Next Best: #1 Entry (4-5) - WON
AQU Race 8: I don't have a strong opinion as many seem capable.
Most Likely: #3 Nite Lite (2-1) - 2nd
Next Best: #1 Senior's Pride (5-1) - 3rd
Best Value: #5 More than a Reason (6-1) - 4th
AQU Race 9: The Wood. While it's a short field with 6 runners, their are four very promising 3 Y/Olds all looking for a chance on Derby Day. One of them will likely get left out. Eskendereya, potential derby favorite and heavy favorite today, destroyed a good field in the FOY and will be tough to beat if he runs that race again. Schoolyard Dreams had a gutsy performace in the Tampa Derby put didn't improve much in that over his previous race. Needs to place to earn his trip to Kentucky so will should leave it all on the track. Awesome Act is the only one who is set for the derby with a nice Gothom win last month, solid contender. Jackson Bend is sitting on a big one and needs it, only a top 2 finish today will let him advance. My opinion is that Eskendereya is either something very special and wins this race with ease, or freaked last out and regresses today. A short price on him will force me into trying to beat him in this race but can't exclude on the PK4.
Most Likely: #5 Jackson Bend (4-1) - 2nd
Next Best: #2 Awesome Act (9-2) - 3rd
Best Value: #4 Schoolyard Dreams (5-1)
PK4 must include: #3 Eskendereya (4-5) - WON
AQU Race 10: Fun sprint to close out the PK4 - Munnings (4-5) & Musket Man (5-2) are the favorites on the ML but many have a chance on paper. I like Warrior's Rewards training pattern and think he will be big contender in this. I think pace will be sharp and he will pass them all turning for home.
Most Likely: #2 Warrior Reward (9-2) - WON
Next Best: #4 Musket Man (3-1) - 2nd
BestValue: #1 Digger/Entry (8-1)
PK4 must include: #5 Munnings (4-5) - 3rd
PK4: Leg 1: 2,4 w/ 1,3,5 w/ 2,3,5 w/1,2,4,5 = 2x3x3x4 = $72
Santa Anita Derby:
Most Likely: #7 Looking @ Lucky (4-5) - 3rd
Next Best: #4 Sidney's Candy (3-1) - WON
Best Value: #10 Alphie Bet (8-1)
Super Suprise: #9 Skipshot (15-1)
Exacta Bx: 4, 9, 10
Tri 7 w/ 4,9,10 w/ 4,9,10
Tri 4,9,10 w/ 7 w/ 4,9,10
AQU: Race 7: Going to try to get past entry since they will be a short price. Also find it odd Contessa sends two speed balls into this including the big number but confused 85ina50. I can see them flying up front and leaving the perfect stalking trip for Raynick's Jet, the pick. Also intrigued by Cali shipper "Hurricane Ike."
Most Likely: #2 Raynick's Jet (3-1 ML) -4th
Best Value: #4 Hurricane Ike (7-2) - 2nd
Next Best: #1 Entry (4-5) - WON
AQU Race 8: I don't have a strong opinion as many seem capable.
Most Likely: #3 Nite Lite (2-1) - 2nd
Next Best: #1 Senior's Pride (5-1) - 3rd
Best Value: #5 More than a Reason (6-1) - 4th
AQU Race 9: The Wood. While it's a short field with 6 runners, their are four very promising 3 Y/Olds all looking for a chance on Derby Day. One of them will likely get left out. Eskendereya, potential derby favorite and heavy favorite today, destroyed a good field in the FOY and will be tough to beat if he runs that race again. Schoolyard Dreams had a gutsy performace in the Tampa Derby put didn't improve much in that over his previous race. Needs to place to earn his trip to Kentucky so will should leave it all on the track. Awesome Act is the only one who is set for the derby with a nice Gothom win last month, solid contender. Jackson Bend is sitting on a big one and needs it, only a top 2 finish today will let him advance. My opinion is that Eskendereya is either something very special and wins this race with ease, or freaked last out and regresses today. A short price on him will force me into trying to beat him in this race but can't exclude on the PK4.
Most Likely: #5 Jackson Bend (4-1) - 2nd
Next Best: #2 Awesome Act (9-2) - 3rd
Best Value: #4 Schoolyard Dreams (5-1)
PK4 must include: #3 Eskendereya (4-5) - WON
AQU Race 10: Fun sprint to close out the PK4 - Munnings (4-5) & Musket Man (5-2) are the favorites on the ML but many have a chance on paper. I like Warrior's Rewards training pattern and think he will be big contender in this. I think pace will be sharp and he will pass them all turning for home.
Most Likely: #2 Warrior Reward (9-2) - WON
Next Best: #4 Musket Man (3-1) - 2nd
BestValue: #1 Digger/Entry (8-1)
PK4 must include: #5 Munnings (4-5) - 3rd
PK4: Leg 1: 2,4 w/ 1,3,5 w/ 2,3,5 w/1,2,4,5 = 2x3x3x4 = $72
Santa Anita Derby:
Most Likely: #7 Looking @ Lucky (4-5) - 3rd
Next Best: #4 Sidney's Candy (3-1) - WON
Best Value: #10 Alphie Bet (8-1)
Super Suprise: #9 Skipshot (15-1)
Exacta Bx: 4, 9, 10
Tri 7 w/ 4,9,10 w/ 4,9,10
Tri 4,9,10 w/ 7 w/ 4,9,10
Friday, November 6, 2009
BC Day 2
Day one was full of should ofs and almosts. Made a small recovery on the last race when Best Value "Closeout" got up for 2nd @ 28-1. Misplayed the Midday-Informed Decision DD and barely missed a nice tri when top pick Mushka could only get up for 2nd in the F&M turf. Feel good heading into day 2 with plenty of early race opportunities that should lead to a big day. Early PK4 looks impossible but rewarding. Fatal Bullet in the Sprint will determine how my day plays out. Many horses could suprize and $1 tri's will be 1k+ but I expect some chalk leading up to a wide open classic.
gamble gamble
gamble gamble
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