BC Day 2

Day one was full of should ofs and almosts. Made a small recovery on the last race when Best Value "Closeout" got up for 2nd @ 28-1. Misplayed the Midday-Informed Decision DD and barely missed a nice tri when top pick Mushka could only get up for 2nd in the F&M turf. Feel good heading into day 2 with plenty of early race opportunities that should lead to a big day. Early PK4 looks impossible but rewarding. Fatal Bullet in the Sprint will determine how my day plays out. Many horses could suprize and $1 tri's will be 1k+ but I expect some chalk leading up to a wide open classic.

gamble gamble

BC Day One

Preliminary Thoughts... Will review and may change opinions tonight. Sad not to be in person this year but will resume that tradition @ CD next fall.

Have to make a stand somewhere on this card so I'm locking in Magical Fantasy. The MF to Informed Decision/Ventura might be the best DD of the day and should be a fair price with forever together the expected favorite. I will be covering it strongly with PK3s on either side and possible PK4s on both sides and that sequence will likely decide the days outcome. Debating which Late PK4 to play, Race 5 or Race 6: Decisions lie ahead but it will be a fun weekend.

Jockey Club Gold Cup Day

Looks like a chalky undercard as Music Note and Fab Strike should roll. Gio Ponti should win as well but the 12f distance brings some uncertainty and could spring a nice price. The Flower bowl is a great betting race with many contenders casting a wide net in the PK4 with 8-1 shot #5 Criticism very interesting. The Gold Cup is very competitive with the best 3 year olds taking on elders. Macho Again looks tough but gave the slight nod to Summer Bird.

$74 Pk 4 play:

5 w/ 3,4,5,7 w/ 1,9 w/ 2,3 ($16)
1,4 w/ 4 w/ 1,9 w/ 2,3 ($8)

5 w/ 1,3,4,5,7 w/ 1,3,7,9 w/ 2,3 ($40)
5 w/ 4 w/ 1,9 w/ 2,3,5,6,7 ($10)

Betting Strategy

I have customized Steven Christ's A, B, C, X ticket structuring. If you have questions about this, email me or pick up his book named "Exotic Betting."

What I do is use the same A, B, C and X rankings but bet my combinations in various forms ACROSS the mutli-race wagering menu.

How to read my picks... I love Steve Byks format for choosing contenders and have adopted it here. I will list an "A" and two "B" choices for each race. The "A - Most Likely" is my pick to win, while the "B" choices are my alternative winners, labeled "2nd Best" and "Value Play." I tend to try for value with the "B" choices and so these are not nessecarily the 2nd and 3rd best horses.

How I bet:

Based on my research, I maximise my ROI by playing these combinations on suggested big day sequences:

Ticket #1 $20 to win on "A - Most Likely" **CONDITIONAL BET ONLY IF MY TOP CHOICE IS OVER 3-1

Rolling Daily Double:

Ticket #2 A w/ BB

Ticket #3 BB w/ A

($3/combo) or $12/race

Rolling PK 3:

Ticket #4 A w/ A w/ ABB

Ticket #5 A w/ BB w/ A

Ticket #6 BB w/ A w/ A

($2/combo) or $14/race

PK4: A different beast so I must list these plays sperately.

PK6: I don't have the bankroll to take legitiamate shots.

Exacta, Trifecta & Superfecta - I haven't found a way to consistently profit in these pools but I still love them and throw some money at them occasionally. I'll label them spot plays when I am planning them.

I'll layout the sequence of bets for these BC prep weekends and this years Breeder's Cup