R6:
Most Likely: #4 Rachel
Next Best: #3 Zardana
R7:
Most Likely: #7 Nina Fever
Best Value: #2 Lou Brissa - WON
Next Best: #6 Final Mesa
R8:
Most Likely: #6 Silver Timber - WON
Best Value: #7 Starfish Bay
Next Best: #3 Chamberlain bridge - 2nd
R9:
Most Likely: # Arson Squad - WON - PK3 paid $242
Best Value: # Flying Private
Next Best: # Cool Coal Man
R10:
Most Likely: #4 Lost Aplitude
Best Value: #11 Working for hops
Next Best: # 5 Strike the Tiger, #6 Double Partner - WON - PK3 Paid $368
R11
Most Likely: #5 Blind Luck - WON - PK3 paid$271
Best Value: #11 Evening Jewel - 2nd, #2 Jody Slew
Next Best: # 8 Tidal Pool - 3rd
Tri paid $390!?!
Oaks/Derby Double
$8 5 w/ 10,11
$4 5 w/ 2,6,7,10,11
$2 8,11 w/ 4,10,11
Oaks/Woodford/Derby PK3
$1 5 w/ 5,6,7 w/ 1,10,11
Thursday, April 29, 2010
Tuesday, April 27, 2010
Oaks / Derby Day
Churchill should be wet and sloppy which reminds me of Proud Spell romping home at a generous 3-1 in the '08 Oaks. The most lucrative pool of the weekend was exploited that year when Proud Spell @ 3-1 over the heavy fav 2-1 Big Brown paid 2x overlay of 17-1. Hoping to find some longer prices this weekend in the Oaks/Derby Double and the Oaks/Woodford/Derby PK3.
Early thoughts on horses I like this weekend...
Oaks: Tidal Pool / Blink Luck... hoping Blind Luck is 2-1+ or TP is 5-1+ Live Long Shot = Jody Slew @ 30-1?!
Derby: Ice Box $$$, Devil May Care, Lookin@Lucky, and Sidney's Candy. One's i'm still curious about... Super Saver, Awesome Act, Paddy O Prado
And the race for last regardless of posts includes: Dublin, Backtalk, Dean's Kitten, Homeboykris
Early thoughts on horses I like this weekend...
Oaks: Tidal Pool / Blink Luck... hoping Blind Luck is 2-1+ or TP is 5-1+ Live Long Shot = Jody Slew @ 30-1?!
Derby: Ice Box $$$, Devil May Care, Lookin@Lucky, and Sidney's Candy. One's i'm still curious about... Super Saver, Awesome Act, Paddy O Prado
And the race for last regardless of posts includes: Dublin, Backtalk, Dean's Kitten, Homeboykris
Saturday, April 3, 2010
Wood & SA Derby Day
A major prep weekend for the derby.
AQU: Race 7: Going to try to get past entry since they will be a short price. Also find it odd Contessa sends two speed balls into this including the big number but confused 85ina50. I can see them flying up front and leaving the perfect stalking trip for Raynick's Jet, the pick. Also intrigued by Cali shipper "Hurricane Ike."
Most Likely: #2 Raynick's Jet (3-1 ML) -4th
Best Value: #4 Hurricane Ike (7-2) - 2nd
Next Best: #1 Entry (4-5) - WON
AQU Race 8: I don't have a strong opinion as many seem capable.
Most Likely: #3 Nite Lite (2-1) - 2nd
Next Best: #1 Senior's Pride (5-1) - 3rd
Best Value: #5 More than a Reason (6-1) - 4th
AQU Race 9: The Wood. While it's a short field with 6 runners, their are four very promising 3 Y/Olds all looking for a chance on Derby Day. One of them will likely get left out. Eskendereya, potential derby favorite and heavy favorite today, destroyed a good field in the FOY and will be tough to beat if he runs that race again. Schoolyard Dreams had a gutsy performace in the Tampa Derby put didn't improve much in that over his previous race. Needs to place to earn his trip to Kentucky so will should leave it all on the track. Awesome Act is the only one who is set for the derby with a nice Gothom win last month, solid contender. Jackson Bend is sitting on a big one and needs it, only a top 2 finish today will let him advance. My opinion is that Eskendereya is either something very special and wins this race with ease, or freaked last out and regresses today. A short price on him will force me into trying to beat him in this race but can't exclude on the PK4.
Most Likely: #5 Jackson Bend (4-1) - 2nd
Next Best: #2 Awesome Act (9-2) - 3rd
Best Value: #4 Schoolyard Dreams (5-1)
PK4 must include: #3 Eskendereya (4-5) - WON
AQU Race 10: Fun sprint to close out the PK4 - Munnings (4-5) & Musket Man (5-2) are the favorites on the ML but many have a chance on paper. I like Warrior's Rewards training pattern and think he will be big contender in this. I think pace will be sharp and he will pass them all turning for home.
Most Likely: #2 Warrior Reward (9-2) - WON
Next Best: #4 Musket Man (3-1) - 2nd
BestValue: #1 Digger/Entry (8-1)
PK4 must include: #5 Munnings (4-5) - 3rd
PK4: Leg 1: 2,4 w/ 1,3,5 w/ 2,3,5 w/1,2,4,5 = 2x3x3x4 = $72
Santa Anita Derby:
Most Likely: #7 Looking @ Lucky (4-5) - 3rd
Next Best: #4 Sidney's Candy (3-1) - WON
Best Value: #10 Alphie Bet (8-1)
Super Suprise: #9 Skipshot (15-1)
Exacta Bx: 4, 9, 10
Tri 7 w/ 4,9,10 w/ 4,9,10
Tri 4,9,10 w/ 7 w/ 4,9,10
AQU: Race 7: Going to try to get past entry since they will be a short price. Also find it odd Contessa sends two speed balls into this including the big number but confused 85ina50. I can see them flying up front and leaving the perfect stalking trip for Raynick's Jet, the pick. Also intrigued by Cali shipper "Hurricane Ike."
Most Likely: #2 Raynick's Jet (3-1 ML) -4th
Best Value: #4 Hurricane Ike (7-2) - 2nd
Next Best: #1 Entry (4-5) - WON
AQU Race 8: I don't have a strong opinion as many seem capable.
Most Likely: #3 Nite Lite (2-1) - 2nd
Next Best: #1 Senior's Pride (5-1) - 3rd
Best Value: #5 More than a Reason (6-1) - 4th
AQU Race 9: The Wood. While it's a short field with 6 runners, their are four very promising 3 Y/Olds all looking for a chance on Derby Day. One of them will likely get left out. Eskendereya, potential derby favorite and heavy favorite today, destroyed a good field in the FOY and will be tough to beat if he runs that race again. Schoolyard Dreams had a gutsy performace in the Tampa Derby put didn't improve much in that over his previous race. Needs to place to earn his trip to Kentucky so will should leave it all on the track. Awesome Act is the only one who is set for the derby with a nice Gothom win last month, solid contender. Jackson Bend is sitting on a big one and needs it, only a top 2 finish today will let him advance. My opinion is that Eskendereya is either something very special and wins this race with ease, or freaked last out and regresses today. A short price on him will force me into trying to beat him in this race but can't exclude on the PK4.
Most Likely: #5 Jackson Bend (4-1) - 2nd
Next Best: #2 Awesome Act (9-2) - 3rd
Best Value: #4 Schoolyard Dreams (5-1)
PK4 must include: #3 Eskendereya (4-5) - WON
AQU Race 10: Fun sprint to close out the PK4 - Munnings (4-5) & Musket Man (5-2) are the favorites on the ML but many have a chance on paper. I like Warrior's Rewards training pattern and think he will be big contender in this. I think pace will be sharp and he will pass them all turning for home.
Most Likely: #2 Warrior Reward (9-2) - WON
Next Best: #4 Musket Man (3-1) - 2nd
BestValue: #1 Digger/Entry (8-1)
PK4 must include: #5 Munnings (4-5) - 3rd
PK4: Leg 1: 2,4 w/ 1,3,5 w/ 2,3,5 w/1,2,4,5 = 2x3x3x4 = $72
Santa Anita Derby:
Most Likely: #7 Looking @ Lucky (4-5) - 3rd
Next Best: #4 Sidney's Candy (3-1) - WON
Best Value: #10 Alphie Bet (8-1)
Super Suprise: #9 Skipshot (15-1)
Exacta Bx: 4, 9, 10
Tri 7 w/ 4,9,10 w/ 4,9,10
Tri 4,9,10 w/ 7 w/ 4,9,10
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